Possible scenario
Energy Infrastructure Threatened
30% Chance
The Houthis shift messaging and targeting toward Saudi energy assets, raising the probability of a temporary oil supply disruption. Even without a confirmed outage, markets price a larger geopolitical risk premium into crude.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +3.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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