Possible scenario
U.S. Support Fractures
20% Chance
The White House links continued U.S. support to Ukraine stopping refinery strikes and accepting Trump's negotiation terms. Kyiv resists limits on its strike campaign, widening the policy split between Washington, Brussels, and Kyiv.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.