Possible scenario
Diplomatic Freeze Deepens
45% Chance
Trump's statement hardens into a near-term diplomatic break with Zelenskyy, while Moscow sees little reason to restore the ceasefire track. Ukraine continues targeting Russian refining capacity, and Russia answers with missile and drone attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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