Possible scenario
Saudi Retaliatory Escalation
25% Chance
Riyadh responds with a broader air campaign against Houthi launch sites, command nodes, and drone facilities around Sanaa and Saada. The Houthis answer with additional missile and drone threats, lifting the perceived risk premium on Gulf energy and aviation.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +2.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.