Possible scenario
Contained Air Disruption
45% Chance
Saudi authorities contain the immediate disruption by intercepting follow-on threats and reopening Riyadh airport after inspections. The Houthi strike on Najran keeps border areas on alert, but markets treat the episode as a localized escalation rather than a direct threat to oil infrastructure.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.8%
- Consumer Services -0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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