Possible scenario
Diplomatic De-Escalation
20% Chance
Oman and the UN push both sides back toward a limited truce after the school strike raises civilian-casualty risks. Saudi Arabia keeps air defenses elevated, but both sides pause the most visible cross-border attacks to avoid a wider rupture.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Oil prices Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.9%
- Consumer Services +0.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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