Possible scenario

Fiscal Reassurance Lands

25%its chance, of the story’s futures

+0.6%on the S&P 500, if it happens

Lula’s economic team, led by Finance Minister Fernando Haddad, moves quickly to reassure investors that new social spending will be paired with credible offsets. That reduces fears of fiscal dominance and allows markets to rebuild expectations for a gradual Selic-cutting cycle.

What it moves

Consumer Cyclicals+0.9%
Utilities+0.8%
Riskier companies' borrowing costs▼ down
Market volatility▼ down

Sectors in percent; other series by direction only.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

Keeping an eye on this scenario?