Possible scenario
Cuts Stay Delayed
45%
−0.7%
The most likely path is that Banco Central do Brasil keeps a cautious stance while investors reassess fiscal risks after Lula’s re-election and the proposed consumer-debt purchase program. Rate cuts are not abandoned, but the bar for near-term easing rises until inflation expectations and the real stabilize.
What it moves
- Consumer Cyclicals−0.9%
- Finance−0.7%
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs
- Market volatility
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