Possible scenario
Democratic Reconciliation
40% Chance
The most likely path is that Jasmine Crockett avoids a prolonged intraparty fight and eventually signals support for James Talarico as the Democratic nominee. Ro Khanna’s public pressure and Talarico’s fundraising strength give party leaders incentives to close ranks against Ken Paxton.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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