Regional Spillover Risk
−1.0%
The Saudi-Houthi exchange broadens toward Red Sea shipping, Gulf energy logistics, or US-UK naval involvement. This is less likely than a contained exchange, but the recent sequence of attacks on Aramco and Riyadh makes spillover a credible tail risk.
What it moves
- Energy+1.8%
- Consumer Services−0.6%
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs
- Market volatility
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.