Limited Banking Contagion
−0.2%
A less likely but important scenario is that depositors at smaller Paraguayan banks and finance companies move funds after watching Ueno collapse. The central bank would likely respond with liquidity support and public reassurance to prevent a broader run.
What it moves
- Finance−0.6%
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs
- Market volatility
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.