• 

  55%

  0.0%

  Orderly Payout Completion

  The most likely path is that Paraguay’s central bank and deposit-guarantee authorities complete most insured depositor payments without broader disruption. The Nov 10 update indicates the refund process is already reaching most customers, reducing the odds of a wider banking confidence shock.

  Finance +0.1%

• 

  20%

  −0.1%

  Asset Freeze Disputes

  Depositor payouts proceed, but frozen mutual funds and state assets become the next major legal and political dispute. This would keep pressure on regulators, fund administrators, and public entities even if insured deposits are largely protected.

  Finance −0.4%

• 

  15%

  −0.1%

  Fiscal Cost Scrutiny

  Attention shifts from operational payouts to the fiscal burden of the resolution. Lawmakers and rating analysts examine whether the deposit-insurance fund, central bank, or treasury must absorb losses from Ueno Bank’s collapse.

  Finance −0.4%

• 

  10%

  −0.2%

  Limited Banking Contagion

  A less likely but important scenario is that depositors at smaller Paraguayan banks and finance companies move funds after watching Ueno collapse. The central bank would likely respond with liquidity support and public reassurance to prevent a broader run.

  Finance −0.6%

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if it happens. For information only. Not investment advice.