Possible scenario
Congressional Confrontation
−0.1%
Democrats use their new congressional majorities to challenge the tariff program through oversight, appropriations riders, and repeal votes. The key uncertainty is whether this produces market-friendly tariff relief or a fiscal and legal confrontation with the White House.
What it moves
- Technology+0.6%
- Finance−0.5%
- 10-year Treasury yield
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.