Possible scenario
Saudi Acts Alone
15% Chance
Saudi Arabia may decide that deterrence requires a unilateral or coalition response despite Washington's refusal to join an offensive campaign. This is less likely because Riyadh wants to avoid reopening a costly Yemen war, but it remains plausible if Houthi attacks continue.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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