Diplomacy Contains Conflict

The U.S. refusal to conduct airstrikes gives Riyadh an incentive to return to Oman-mediated channels rather than widen the war. The most likely near-term path is a fragile containment effort that preserves the May 2025 maritime truce framework while leaving periodic Houthi threats unresolved.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.