Possible scenario
Marshall Recovers
30% Chance
Roger Marshall survives the endorsement shock by nationalizing the race around Senate control, taxes, energy, and immigration. The $14 million GOP super PAC intervention helps reassemble conservative voters who were wavering after the bipartisan endorsements.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.2%
- Healthcare +0.2%
- Energy +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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