Possible scenario
Hamilton Holds Lead
45% Chance
Adam Hamilton consolidates moderate Republican, independent, and Democratic support after the Republican governor's endorsement. The GOP super PAC spending narrows the race but does not erase the damage from the patient-debt arrest attacks on Sen. Roger Marshall.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
Secondary impacts
- Healthcare -0.4%
- Finance -0.3%
- Energy -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.