Possible scenario
Contested Finish
15% Chance
The endorsement deepens the partisan split but does not produce a decisive break for either candidate. Election night ends with an extremely tight margin, keeping the race unresolved and potentially affecting national Senate-control calculations.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.1%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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