Possible scenario
Court Challenges Accelerate
35% Chance
Legal challenges emerge quickly, but presidential pardon power over federal offenses remains very broad. The key uncertainty is whether courts allow discovery into alleged quid pro quo arrangements or treat the pardons as unreviewable executive acts.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Market volatility Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -0.2%
- Business Services +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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