Possible scenario
State Prosecutions Expand
25% Chance
State and local prosecutors look for charges outside the reach of presidential pardons, especially bribery, tax, campaign-finance, and procurement-related offenses. This path is legally plausible but slower and less market-moving than a federal constitutional showdown.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.2%
- Business Services +0.1%
- Technology -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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