Possible scenario
Congressional Backlash Builds
25% Chance
Congress responds with hearings, subpoenas, and proposed limits on pardon transparency. The outcome depends on whether Republicans treat the pardons as normal executive power or join Democrats in demanding disclosure.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.1%
- Business Services -0.1%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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