Possible scenario
Negotiated Compromise
25% Chance
The administration could use the restrictions as leverage to force changes in employer behavior while avoiding a full break with business groups and India. A compromise would likely preserve curbs on bulk IT registrations while protecting higher-wage technology, health care, and research roles.
Secondary impacts
- Technology +0.7%
- Business Services +0.1%
- Industrials +0.1%
Tickers
- CTSH+0.9%
- MSFT+0.7%
- AMZN+0.6%
- +0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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