Possible scenario
Base Turnout Strategy
42% Chance
The Oklahoma and Alabama rallies reinforce a strategy centered on maximizing Trump-loyal turnout rather than persuading swing voters. With approval at 32%, the campaign leans on safe red states to generate clips, volunteers, and donations for House and Senate contests elsewhere.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.1%
- Industrials +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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