Possible scenario
Hardline National Campaign
18% Chance
Trump turns the Oklahoma and Alabama stops into a nationalized campaign message focused on Iran, immigration, crime, and loyalty to the White House. This energizes the base but increases headline volatility because foreign-policy rhetoric and domestic confrontation become more central to the midterm campaign.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.4%
- Industrials +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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