Possible scenario
Approval Drag Persists
30% Chance
The rallies fail to shift the dominant story that Trump's low approval and the Iran War are weighing on the GOP before the midterms. Democrats use the red-state schedule to argue Republicans are playing defense with their own base rather than expanding the map.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.1%
- Technology -0.1%
- Industrials -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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