Possible scenario
Stalemate Assessment Endures
30% Chance
The US assessment remains largely unchanged despite Zelenskyy's rejection, as the front lines show only marginal movement. Western governments continue support, but the debate shifts toward sustainability, ammunition supply, and 2027 budget politics.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.4%
- Technology -0.2%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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