Possible scenario
Momentum Narrative Holds
35% Chance
Ukraine produces enough battlefield evidence to challenge the US stalemate assessment, with limited but visible advances in the south or east. Washington does not fully endorse Zelenskyy's framing, but officials soften the language and keep military aid flowing.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.6%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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