Possible scenario
Escalation Risks Rise
20% Chance
Moscow responds to Ukraine's battlefield messaging with heavier missile and drone attacks, while Kyiv increases long-range strikes on logistics nodes in occupied territory or Russia's border regions. The risk is still below crisis level but enough to lift energy and defense risk premia.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +1.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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