Possible scenario
Interim Truce Extended
28% Chance
Trump may be using the headline to build leverage before announcing a temporary extension rather than a finished pact. This outcome would calm markets but leave the USMCA review, auto-content demands, and tariff threat unresolved.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.7%
- Industrials +0.5%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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