Possible scenario
Comprehensive Deal Reached
45% Chance
The most likely path is a negotiated framework that lets Trump claim tougher regional content rules while giving Claudia Sheinbaum a tariff off-ramp. The deal preserves the USMCA core, phases in higher U.S. or North American auto content, and avoids an immediate 30% tariff shock.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Copper Up
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals +1.9%
- Industrials +1.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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