Possible scenario
Talks Break Down
20% Chance
Trump's optimism may prove premature if negotiators cannot bridge the gap on auto content, labor enforcement, and tariff exemptions. A breakdown would revive fears of higher costs for autos, industrial inputs, and cross-border logistics.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Copper Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals -2.4%
- Industrials -1.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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