Possible scenario
Brown Clear Win
17% Chance
Brown's lead expands rather than narrows, suggesting a broader Democratic advantage in the 2026 midterms. This would be a stronger-than-expected result in a state Republicans have carried recently, increasing the likelihood of Democratic Senate control.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.8%
- Finance -0.6%
- Healthcare -0.6%
- Technology -0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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