Possible scenario
White House Pivots
20% Chance
The administration responds to deteriorating approval by changing tactics before November. The most plausible pivot is a partial economic reset focused on prices, tariff exemptions, or visible household relief.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.7%
- Technology +0.4%
- Industrials +0.4%
- Finance -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.