Possible scenario
Republicans Contain Losses
25% Chance
Despite poor national approval, Republicans hold enough rural and exurban turnout advantages to avoid a wave. Candidate quality, district lines, and localized economic messaging blunt the national anti-Trump environment.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.4%
- Technology +0.3%
- Energy +0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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