Possible scenario
Democratic Midterm Wave
42% Chance
Trump's 37% approval and record strong disapproval make a Democratic House takeover the most likely path. The weak polling is especially damaging in suburban districts where tariffs, inflation, and economic-management dissatisfaction are central campaign issues.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.3%
- Finance -0.3%
- Energy -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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