GOP Edge Holds

38%its chance, of the story’s futures

+0.1%on the S&P 500, if it happens

Republicans maintain their early-ballot advantage as late-arriving mail ballots and in-person early votes continue to favor GOP registrants. Donald Trump’s 2026 push to normalize mail voting among Republicans appears to reduce the turnout penalty that hurt the party in prior cycles.

What it moves

Finance+0.2%
Energy+0.2%
Market volatility▼ down
10-year Treasury yield▲ up

Sectors in percent; other series by direction only.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

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