Possible scenario
Limited Violent Incident
18% Chance
A sabotage or cross-border incident causes casualties or major disruption, forcing Germany and NATO into a sharper crisis-management posture. The most likely response remains calibrated retaliation, emergency security measures, and diplomatic pressure rather than direct NATO-Russia combat.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
- Bitcoin Down
Secondary impacts
- Utilities
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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