Possible scenario
Deterrence Holds
28% Chance
Germany and NATO harden defenses, expand counterintelligence, and signal retaliation options without a direct kinetic confrontation. This outcome is plausible because both NATO and Russia have incentives to manage escalation below the threshold of open war.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Market volatility Down
- US dollar Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +1.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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