Possible scenario
Hybrid Conflict Widens
46% Chance
Russia continues to pressure Germany and NATO through sabotage, cyber operations, intimidation, and disinformation while avoiding an overt military attack. This is the most likely path because Moscow can raise costs for NATO support to Ukraine without triggering a clear Article 5 response.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.