Possible scenario
Raman Wins Narrowly
42% Chance
Nithya Raman converts her small polling lead into a narrow victory by consolidating progressive renters, younger voters, and voters dissatisfied with homelessness outcomes under Karen Bass. The contentious rally reinforces the contrast between Raman's insurgent message and Bass's incumbency rather than derailing Raman's campaign.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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