Possible scenario
Rapid Weakening Resumes
20% Chance
Despite near-term intensification, Simon again encounters less favorable conditions and weakens before reaching Mexico. This is plausible given the earlier weakening in the timeline and would reduce wind risk, leaving rainfall and surf as the main hazards.
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +0.2%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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