Possible scenario
Prosecutions Hold
38% Chance
The most likely path is that the DHS-led operation becomes a conventional federal prosecution campaign rather than a market-moving national security event. Prosecutors use gun, fentanyl, and conspiracy charges to secure pleas and informant cooperation against mid-level distributors.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.