Niche Data Product

25%its chance, of the story’s futures

0.0%on the S&P 500, if it happens

The indices become a useful alternative-data feed but not a large new asset class. Trading volumes remain concentrated around elections, Fed decisions, and high-profile economic outcomes, limiting the commercial upside for S&P Global and Kalshi.

What it moves

Business Services+0.1%
Finance+0.1%

Sectors in percent; other series by direction only.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

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