Possible scenario
USMCA Fight Formalizes
20% Chance
The dispute shifts from lobbying and public rhetoric into formal USMCA channels. This path is realistic because the U.S. has already launched the USMCA review process and Canada has been seeking renewal and tariff relief.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Non-Energy Materials -0.8%
- Industrials -0.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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