Possible scenario
Diplomatic Freeze Deepens
35% Chance
The White House allows Navarro's message to stand, signaling that Canadian business groups will have little access while retaliatory tariffs remain in place. This is the most likely path because the headline follows a rapid escalation from U.S. tariffs to Canada's 50% response.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Non-Energy Materials -1.1%
- Industrials -1.0%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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