Possible scenario
Backchannel Talks Resume
30% Chance
Despite Navarro's public warning, U.S. Trade Representative staff and Canadian officials use quiet channels to prevent a broader North American trade rupture. This remains plausible because both governments have incentives to protect autos, energy, rail, and food supply chains.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Non-Energy Materials +0.5%
- Industrials +0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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