Possible scenario
Limited Deconfliction Emerges
18% Chance
The repeated Ukrainian aid missions increase diplomatic pressure for a narrow humanitarian arrangement. Russia resists full access but may accept a limited, controlled mechanism if it reduces reputational costs without changing the military front.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.