Possible scenario
Runoff Result Contested
18% Chance
The race ends inside a very narrow margin, and the losing side challenges voting-machine procedures, campaign finance, or online disinformation rulings. Brazil's institutions probably hold, but the transition becomes more volatile and politically polarized.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
- Bitcoin Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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