Possible scenario
Flávio Wins Presidency
35% Chance
Milei's endorsement helps consolidate anti-Lula voters and gives Flávio Bolsonaro a regional anti-left narrative. A late swing among evangelical, agribusiness, and security-focused voters delivers a narrow opposition victory.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.3%
- Finance +0.2%
- Utilities
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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