Possible scenario
Lula Wins Runoff
40% Chance
Milei's endorsement energizes the right but also helps Lula frame the race as a defense of Brazilian sovereignty and democratic institutions. Lula wins a narrow second term with support from centrists wary of a Bolsonaro restoration and regional ideological confrontation.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.1%
- Consumer Non-Cyclicals +0.1%
- Consumer Services +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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